Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hold the attention of traders and investors around the world as it consolidates below a key descending trend line. As we head into a new week, technical signals indicate both caution and opportunity. In this article, we’ll take a closer look at the latest Bitcoin market structure, including essential support and resistance levels, potential scenarios, and what to expect next. Bitcoin Price Analysis
Current Position: Below Resistance, Above Key Support
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is still trading below a descending trend line that has acted as strong resistance. This trend line remains one of the most important indicators to monitor in the coming days. Despite the downward pressure, BTC continues to hold above two crucial Fibonacci support levels: $75,340 and $69,144. These zones could act as strong foundations if another drop occurs—an outcome that remains highly plausible within the current fourth-wave correction.
The Fourth-Wave Correction: Still in Play?
The broader market structure suggests that BTC might still be in the midst of its wave 4 correction phase. As long as price action remains below micro resistance, the probability of another lower low being formed increases. It’s important to note that another low within the current correction would still be considered “normal” and would not invalidate the bullish long-term outlook.
However, a decisive break below $69,144—sustained over multiple daily closes—would shift the landscape significantly. Such a move could challenge the current bullish white scenario, which forecasts a potential rally toward the $130,000 region in the next wave (possibly wave 5). Until that happens, the white scenario remains valid and is being closely watched.
No Confirmation Yet for the Next Rally
While the bullish path remains technically valid, there is no strong confirmation yet that the next major rally has begun. Market activity has remained speculative, with limited evidence of impulsive upward momentum. Reversal signals could emerge from the Fibonacci support zones, especially if BTC manages to break above the descending trend line with strength.
Even if BTC breaks above the trend line, it must also surpass a major Fibonacci resistance zone located between $90,925 and $103,831. This red zone represents a common resistance area that could serve as the endpoint for a wave B rally or the beginning of a new bullish phase. Any breakout into this zone would mark a significant shift in sentiment.
Short-Term View: Three-Wave Rally and Key Support Zone
Zooming in to the smaller time frame, we observe that the market recently rallied in a three-wave A-B-C pattern from the March 11th low. The C-wave, in particular, followed a clear five-wave structure, which typically signifies the end of a corrective pattern. This implies that the A-wave in the white count may now be complete, and we could be in a B-wave pullback.
This smaller time frame scenario hinges on BTC holding support between $79,189 and $81,159. If this support zone breaks, the white scenario begins to lose credibility. On the flip side, a bounce from this level could set the stage for a wave C rally toward the mid-$90K region.
Triangle Formation and Alternative (Yellow) Scenario
There is growing speculation that the current consolidation below resistance is forming a triangle pattern. This triangle could be part of a B-wave in the yellow count scenario, or even signal a continuation of the downward move in a diagonal structure. A key observation supporting this idea is the failure of bulls to produce a strong five-wave rally, which suggests weakness.
In this yellow scenario, the initial move down would be labeled as wave A, and the current triangle could be wave B. This would imply further downside is likely, potentially in a non-impulsive diagonal pattern rather than a strong bearish impulse.
The key resistance range here is between $84,000 and $86,968. A break above this level would challenge the yellow count and refocus attention on the broader bullish case. However, as long as the market continues to reject this zone, further downside remains the more probable path.
Key Levels to Watch
Here’s a summary of the most important technical levels to monitor:
- Support Levels:
- $81,159 (short-term support)
- $79,189 (critical for white count)
- $75,340 and $69,144 (Fibonacci long-term supports)
- Resistance Levels:
- $84,000–$86,968 (short-term resistance)
- $90,925–$103,831 (major Fibonacci resistance zone)
A break above the $86,968 resistance could lead to a test of the major red resistance zone. Conversely, a break below $79,189 or especially $69,144 could shift the structure in favor of the bearish outlook.
Path of Least Resistance: Still Down?
Considering the overall structure and recent price behavior, it appears that the path of least resistance remains to the downside, at least in the short term. The lack of a strong bullish impulse and failure to break key resistance levels point to a market still in consolidation or even preparing for one more dip.
However, the long-term structure remains supportive of the idea that a significant rally could follow once wave 4 completes—whether the current low was the bottom or another dip is still ahead.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s current market behavior continues to reflect uncertainty. Multiple scenarios are possible, and both bullish and bearish counts have valid arguments. What traders and investors need now is confirmation through price action—either a strong break above key resistance zones or a decisive collapse below support.
Until then, the best strategy is to remain agile, monitor key levels, and watch for breakout or breakdown signals. As always, risk management is essential in such volatile and speculative conditions.
If you found this analysis helpful, stay tuned for more updates as we continue to monitor Bitcoin’s evolving market structure. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or a crypto enthusiast, understanding the technical landscape can help you make more informed decisions.
